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Day 4 / 30 - Holding the Current

Daily Report / 每日交易报告 - 2026-03-13

Session Summary / 会话摘要

  • Challenge progress / 挑战进度: Day 4 / 30 (13.3%)
  • Current equity / 当前权益: HKD 4,909.75
  • Net PnL / 累计盈亏: -HKD 90.25
  • Last snapshot / 最新快照: 2026-03-13 21:37:47 CST (UTC+08:00)
  • Research cycles / 研究轮次: 27
  • Order submissions / 提交订单: 0
  • Filled trades / 成交笔数: 0
  • FX events / 换汇记录: 1
  • Total tokens / 当日总 Token: 25269
  • Decision-model tokens / 决策模型 Token: gpt-5.4 25269 (100.0%)
  • Latest decision / 最新决策: [US] HOLD / [US] 观望

Holdings Detail / 持仓明细

Symbol Qty Value Floating PnL Status Note
BABA 0.938 HKD 1,002.45 HKD -8.99 Open / 持有中 Still carried after the latest monitoring cycle / 当前仍在持有

Trade Activity / 交易情况

Time Action Symbol Qty Avg Fill Timing Rationale / 时机理由
- - - - - No public fill / 暂无公开成交

Trade Rationale / 交易理由

  • Active trade note / 已执行交易说明: No public trade rationale / 暂无公开交易理由
  • Active trade risk / 已执行交易风险: No public trade risk / 暂无公开交易风险

Decision Timeline / 当日全部决策

2026-03-13 21:37:36 CST (UTC+08:00) | [US] HOLD / [US] 观望

  • Rationale / 理由: No US candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, BABA, still showed score -1.83, post-fee EV -2.36%, and win probability 50.7%. / 无强信号，维持空仓/原仓位。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: mixed tape; Path: compare-stage hold review; Model: GPT-5.4; Purpose: hold discipline; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：混合状态；决策链路：候选比较后维持观望；模型：GPT-5.4；目的：观望纪律；置信度 0.00。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 2 active candidate(s). Top checks: BABA (China internet) | score -1.83 | post-fee EV -2.36% | win 50.7%; AMD (semiconductor) | score -3.38 | post-fee EV -3.23% | win 47.5%. / 共检查 2 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：BABA（中概互联网） | 评分 -1.83 | 扣费后 EV -2.36% | 胜率 50.7%；AMD（半导体） | 评分 -3.38 | 扣费后 EV -3.23% | 胜率 47.5%。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

2026-03-13 21:25:03 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (session closed) / [HK] 观望（非交易时段）

  • Rationale / 理由: The HK market was still outside its regular session, so the system skipped live research and execution for this cycle. / 当前港股尚未进入常规交易时段（当前: 集合竞价时段），已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: unavailable; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：暂无；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Resume the live screen once the market returns to its regular session. / 等待市场进入常规交易时段后，再恢复实盘筛选。

2026-03-13 21:15:40 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (session closed) / [HK] 观望（非交易时段）

  • Rationale / 理由: The HK market was still outside its regular session, so the system skipped live research and execution for this cycle. / 当前港股尚未进入常规交易时段（当前: 集合竞价时段），已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: unavailable; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：暂无；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Resume the live screen once the market returns to its regular session. / 等待市场进入常规交易时段后，再恢复实盘筛选。

2026-03-13 21:09:53 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (session closed) / [HK] 观望（非交易时段）

  • Rationale / 理由: The HK market was still outside its regular session, so the system skipped live research and execution for this cycle. / 当前港股尚未进入常规交易时段（当前: 集合竞价时段），已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: unavailable; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：暂无；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Resume the live screen once the market returns to its regular session. / 等待市场进入常规交易时段后，再恢复实盘筛选。

2026-03-13 20:55:28 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (session closed) / [HK] 观望（非交易时段）

  • Rationale / 理由: The HK market was still outside its regular session, so the system skipped live research and execution for this cycle. / 当前港股尚未进入常规交易时段（当前: 非交易时段），已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: unavailable; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：暂无；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Resume the live screen once the market returns to its regular session. / 等待市场进入常规交易时段后，再恢复实盘筛选。

2026-03-13 20:51:41 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (session closed) / [HK] 观望（非交易时段）

  • Rationale / 理由: The HK market was still outside its regular session, so the system skipped live research and execution for this cycle. / 当前港股尚未进入常规交易时段（当前: 非交易时段），已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: unavailable; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：暂无；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Resume the live screen once the market returns to its regular session. / 等待市场进入常规交易时段后，再恢复实盘筛选。

2026-03-13 20:32:02 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (session closed) / [HK] 观望（非交易时段）

  • Rationale / 理由: The HK market was still outside its regular session, so the system skipped live research and execution for this cycle. / 当前港股尚未进入常规交易时段（当前: 集合竞价时段），已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: unavailable; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：暂无；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Resume the live screen once the market returns to its regular session. / 等待市场进入常规交易时段后，再恢复实盘筛选。

2026-03-13 15:30:20 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (session closed) / [HK] 观望（非交易时段）

  • Rationale / 理由: The HK market was still outside its regular session, so the system skipped live research and execution for this cycle. / 当前港股尚未进入常规交易时段（当前: 非交易时段），已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: unavailable; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：暂无；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Resume the live screen once the market returns to its regular session. / 等待市场进入常规交易时段后，再恢复实盘筛选。

2026-03-13 14:47:29 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (no qualified setup) / [HK] 观望（无达标机会）

  • Rationale / 理由: No HK candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, 1810.HK, still showed score -2.99, post-fee EV -2.91%, and win probability 47.9%. / 当前港股活跃池机会评分不足（top_score=-2.99），已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: mixed tape; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：混合状态；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 3 active candidate(s). Top checks: 1810.HK (consumer hardware) | score -2.99 | post-fee EV -2.91% | win 47.9%; 3750.HK (battery) | score -3.06 | post-fee EV -3.13% | win 51.1%; 0388.HK (exchange) | score -3.13 | post-fee EV -3.05% | win 45.6%. / 共检查 3 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：1810.HK（消费硬件） | 评分 -2.99 | 扣费后 EV -2.91% | 胜率 47.9%；3750.HK（电池） | 评分 -3.06 | 扣费后 EV -3.13% | 胜率 51.1%；0388.HK（交易所） | 评分 -3.13 | 扣费后 EV -3.05% | 胜率 45.6%。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

2026-03-13 14:37:15 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (no qualified setup) / [HK] 观望（无达标机会）

  • Rationale / 理由: No HK candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, 1810.HK, still showed score -2.96, post-fee EV -2.87%, and win probability 48.4%. / 当前港股活跃池机会评分不足（top_score=-2.96），已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: mixed tape; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：混合状态；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 3 active candidate(s). Top checks: 1810.HK (consumer hardware) | score -2.96 | post-fee EV -2.87% | win 48.4%; 3750.HK (battery) | score -2.99 | post-fee EV -3.07% | win 51.9%; 0388.HK (exchange) | score -3.14 | post-fee EV -3.06% | win 45.5%. / 共检查 3 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：1810.HK（消费硬件） | 评分 -2.96 | 扣费后 EV -2.87% | 胜率 48.4%；3750.HK（电池） | 评分 -2.99 | 扣费后 EV -3.07% | 胜率 51.9%；0388.HK（交易所） | 评分 -3.14 | 扣费后 EV -3.06% | 胜率 45.5%。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

2026-03-13 14:03:04 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (no qualified setup) / [HK] 观望（无达标机会）

  • Rationale / 理由: No HK candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, 1810.HK, still showed score -2.98, post-fee EV -2.89%, and win probability 48.2%. / 当前港股活跃池机会评分不足（top_score=-2.98），已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: mixed tape; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：混合状态；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 5 active candidate(s). Top checks: 1810.HK (consumer hardware) | score -2.98 | post-fee EV -2.89% | win 48.2%; 3750.HK (battery) | score -3.13 | post-fee EV -3.16% | win 50.7%; 0388.HK (exchange) | score -3.19 | post-fee EV -3.10% | win 44.8%. / 共检查 5 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：1810.HK（消费硬件） | 评分 -2.98 | 扣费后 EV -2.89% | 胜率 48.2%；3750.HK（电池） | 评分 -3.13 | 扣费后 EV -3.16% | 胜率 50.7%；0388.HK（交易所） | 评分 -3.19 | 扣费后 EV -3.10% | 胜率 44.8%。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

2026-03-13 13:38:01 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (no qualified setup) / [HK] 观望（无达标机会）

  • Rationale / 理由: No HK candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, 1810.HK, still showed score -2.83, post-fee EV -2.83%, and win probability 49.1%. / 当前港股活跃池机会评分不足（top_score=-2.83），已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: mixed tape; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：混合状态；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 5 active candidate(s). Top checks: 1810.HK (consumer hardware) | score -2.83 | post-fee EV -2.83% | win 49.1%; 0388.HK (exchange) | score -3.03 | post-fee EV -3.04% | win 45.8%; 3750.HK (battery) | score -3.07 | post-fee EV -3.12% | win 51.3%. / 共检查 5 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：1810.HK（消费硬件） | 评分 -2.83 | 扣费后 EV -2.83% | 胜率 49.1%；0388.HK（交易所） | 评分 -3.03 | 扣费后 EV -3.04% | 胜率 45.8%；3750.HK（电池） | 评分 -3.07 | 扣费后 EV -3.12% | 胜率 51.3%。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

2026-03-13 13:35:12 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (session closed) / [HK] 观望（非交易时段）

  • Rationale / 理由: The HK market was still outside its regular session, so the system skipped live research and execution for this cycle. / 当前港股尚未进入常规交易时段（当前: 非交易时段），已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: unavailable; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：暂无；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Resume the live screen once the market returns to its regular session. / 等待市场进入常规交易时段后，再恢复实盘筛选。

2026-03-13 13:29:00 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (no qualified setup) / [HK] 观望（无达标机会）

  • Rationale / 理由: No HK candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, 0388.HK, still showed score -9.00, post-fee EV N/A, and win probability N/A. / 当前港股活跃池机会评分不足（top_score=-9.00），已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: unclear tape; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：不明确状态；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 5 active candidate(s). Top checks: 0388.HK (exchange) | score -9.00; 1810.HK (consumer hardware) | score -9.00; 1024.HK (China internet) | score -9.00. / 共检查 5 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：0388.HK（交易所） | 评分 -9.00；1810.HK（消费硬件） | 评分 -9.00；1024.HK（中概互联网） | 评分 -9.00。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

2026-03-13 13:11:51 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (no qualified setup) / [HK] 观望（无达标机会）

  • Rationale / 理由: No HK candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, 1810.HK, still showed score -9.00, post-fee EV N/A, and win probability N/A. / 当前港股活跃池机会评分不足（top_score=-9.00），已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: unclear tape; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：不明确状态；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 2 active candidate(s). Top checks: 1810.HK (consumer hardware) | score -9.00; 1211.HK (EV) | score -9.00. / 共检查 2 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：1810.HK（消费硬件） | 评分 -9.00；1211.HK（电动车） | 评分 -9.00。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

2026-03-13 13:08:22 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (no qualified setup) / [HK] 观望（无达标机会）

  • Rationale / 理由: No HK candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, 1810.HK, still showed score -9.00, post-fee EV N/A, and win probability N/A. / 当前港股活跃池机会评分不足（top_score=-9.00），已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: unclear tape; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：不明确状态；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 2 active candidate(s). Top checks: 1810.HK (consumer hardware) | score -9.00; 1211.HK (EV) | score -9.00. / 共检查 2 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：1810.HK（消费硬件） | 评分 -9.00；1211.HK（电动车） | 评分 -9.00。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

2026-03-13 13:07:37 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (no qualified setup) / [HK] 观望（无达标机会）

  • Rationale / 理由: No HK candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, 1810.HK, still showed score -9.00, post-fee EV N/A, and win probability N/A. / 当前港股活跃池机会评分不足（top_score=-9.00），已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: unclear tape; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：不明确状态；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 2 active candidate(s). Top checks: 1810.HK (consumer hardware) | score -9.00; 1211.HK (EV) | score -9.00. / 共检查 2 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：1810.HK（消费硬件） | 评分 -9.00；1211.HK（电动车） | 评分 -9.00。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

2026-03-13 13:00:11 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (no qualified setup) / [HK] 观望（无达标机会）

  • Rationale / 理由: No HK candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, 1810.HK, still showed score -9.00, post-fee EV N/A, and win probability N/A. / 当前港股活跃池机会评分不足（top_score=-9.00），已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: unclear tape; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：不明确状态；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 2 active candidate(s). Top checks: 1810.HK (consumer hardware) | score -9.00; 1211.HK (EV) | score -9.00. / 共检查 2 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：1810.HK（消费硬件） | 评分 -9.00；1211.HK（电动车） | 评分 -9.00。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

2026-03-13 12:55:07 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (session closed) / [HK] 观望（非交易时段）

  • Rationale / 理由: The HK market was still outside its regular session, so the system skipped live research and execution for this cycle. / 当前港股尚未进入常规交易时段（当前: 非交易时段），已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: unavailable; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：暂无；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Resume the live screen once the market returns to its regular session. / 等待市场进入常规交易时段后，再恢复实盘筛选。

2026-03-13 11:39:10 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (no qualified setup) / [HK] 观望（无达标机会）

  • Rationale / 理由: No HK candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, 1810.HK, still showed score -9.00, post-fee EV N/A, and win probability N/A. / 当前港股活跃池机会评分不足（top_score=-9.00），已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: unclear tape; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：不明确状态；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 2 active candidate(s). Top checks: 1810.HK (consumer hardware) | score -9.00; 1211.HK (EV) | score -9.00. / 共检查 2 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：1810.HK（消费硬件） | 评分 -9.00；1211.HK（电动车） | 评分 -9.00。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

2026-03-13 10:38:07 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (no qualified setup) / [HK] 观望（无达标机会）

  • Rationale / 理由: No HK candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, 1810.HK, still showed score -9.00, post-fee EV N/A, and win probability N/A. / 当前港股活跃池机会评分不足（top_score=-9.00），已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: unclear tape; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：不明确状态；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 2 active candidate(s). Top checks: 1810.HK (consumer hardware) | score -9.00; 1211.HK (EV) | score -9.00. / 共检查 2 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：1810.HK（消费硬件） | 评分 -9.00；1211.HK（电动车） | 评分 -9.00。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

2026-03-13 09:37:00 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (no qualified setup) / [HK] 观望（无达标机会）

  • Rationale / 理由: No HK candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, 1810.HK, still showed score -9.00, post-fee EV N/A, and win probability N/A. / 当前港股活跃池机会评分不足（top_score=-9.00），已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: unclear tape; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：不明确状态；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 2 active candidate(s). Top checks: 1810.HK (consumer hardware) | score -9.00; 1211.HK (EV) | score -9.00. / 共检查 2 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：1810.HK（消费硬件） | 评分 -9.00；1211.HK（电动车） | 评分 -9.00。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

2026-03-13 03:44:02 CST (UTC+08:00) | [US] HOLD / [US] 观望

  • Rationale / 理由: No US candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, RIVN, still showed score -1.64, post-fee EV -1.53%, and win probability 39.6%. / US 市场没有候选达到实盘门槛；最强标的 RIVN 仍只有评分 -1.64、扣费后 EV -1.53%、胜率 39.6%。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: high volatility; Path: compare-stage hold review; Model: GPT-5.4; Purpose: hold discipline; confidence 0.84. / 市场状态：高波动；决策链路：候选比较后维持观望；模型：GPT-5.4；目的：观望纪律；置信度 0.84。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 5 active candidate(s). Top checks: RIVN (EV) | score -1.64 | post-fee EV -1.53% | win 39.6%; BABA (China internet) | score -2.37 | post-fee EV -2.96% | win 44.1%; AMD (semiconductor) | score -3.07 | post-fee EV -3.42% | win 40.6%. / 共检查 5 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：RIVN（电动车） | 评分 -1.64 | 扣费后 EV -1.53% | 胜率 39.6%；BABA（中概互联网） | 评分 -2.37 | 扣费后 EV -2.96% | 胜率 44.1%；AMD（半导体） | 评分 -3.07 | 扣费后 EV -3.42% | 胜率 40.6%。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

2026-03-13 02:33:29 CST (UTC+08:00) | [US] HOLD / [US] 观望

  • Rationale / 理由: No US candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, RIVN, still showed score -2.24, post-fee EV -2.10%, and win probability 39.1%. / US 市场没有候选达到实盘门槛；最强标的 RIVN 仍只有评分 -2.24、扣费后 EV -2.10%、胜率 39.1%。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: high volatility; Path: compare-stage hold review; Model: GPT-5.4; Purpose: hold discipline; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：高波动；决策链路：候选比较后维持观望；模型：GPT-5.4；目的：观望纪律；置信度 0.00。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 5 active candidate(s). Top checks: RIVN (EV) | score -2.24 | post-fee EV -2.10% | win 39.1%; BABA (China internet) | score -2.41 | post-fee EV -2.99% | win 43.6%; MSFT (cloud software) | score -3.17 | post-fee EV -2.96% | win 46.6%. / 共检查 5 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：RIVN（电动车） | 评分 -2.24 | 扣费后 EV -2.10% | 胜率 39.1%；BABA（中概互联网） | 评分 -2.41 | 扣费后 EV -2.99% | 胜率 43.6%；MSFT（云软件） | 评分 -3.17 | 扣费后 EV -2.96% | 胜率 46.6%。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

2026-03-13 02:11:12 CST (UTC+08:00) | [US] HOLD / [US] 观望

  • Rationale / 理由: No US candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, RIVN, still showed score -2.36, post-fee EV -2.23%, and win probability 39.1%. / 维持 comparison_stage 的 HOLD 结论。当前允许交易的 6 个标的全部为负的 fee-adjusted EV，且没有任何一个达到“expected edge 必须显著高于往返交易成本”的实盘门槛。在高波动环境下，最关键的不是相对排名，而是绝对净收益门槛：RIVN ev_after_fee_pct -2.2259%、BABA -3.0183%、MSFT -2.9503%、NVDA -3.0261%、AMD -3.6039%、AMZN -3.1643%，全部为负。即使按激进风格允许轮动，proxy_edge_pct 最高的 RIVN 仅 6.43%，但其历史记忆 blended_edge_pct 仍为负、决策样本平均回报为负，且 recent lesson 明确提示 RIVN follow-through 偏弱；BABA 虽是现有持仓且相对不差，但 proxy_edge_pct 1.74% 仍低于 fee_floor_pct 2.0017%，更明显低于 min_expected_edge_multiple_roundtrip_cost 所要求的安全垫。基于 maximize_net_profit_after_fees 目标，此时不开新仓、不加仓、不轮动，净期望优于勉强交易。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: high volatility; Path: compare-stage hold review; Model: GPT-5.4; Purpose: hold discipline; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：高波动；决策链路：候选比较后维持观望；模型：GPT-5.4；目的：观望纪律；置信度 0.00。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 5 active candidate(s). Top checks: RIVN (EV) | score -2.36 | post-fee EV -2.23% | win 39.1%; BABA (China internet) | score -2.43 | post-fee EV -3.02% | win 43.2%; MSFT (cloud software) | score -3.16 | post-fee EV -2.95% | win 46.8%. / 共检查 5 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：RIVN（电动车） | 评分 -2.36 | 扣费后 EV -2.23% | 胜率 39.1%；BABA（中概互联网） | 评分 -2.43 | 扣费后 EV -3.02% | 胜率 43.2%；MSFT（云软件） | 评分 -3.16 | 扣费后 EV -2.95% | 胜率 46.8%。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

2026-03-13 01:08:17 CST (UTC+08:00) | [US] HOLD / [US] 观望

  • Rationale / 理由: No US candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, BABA, still showed score -1.57, post-fee EV -3.04%, and win probability 39.7%. / 维持 comparison_stage 的 HOLD 结论。当前允许交易的 6 个标的全部为负的 fee-adjusted EV，且都没有达到‘expected edge 必须显著高于往返交易成本’的实盘门槛。在 maximize_net_profit_after_fees 目标下，最关键的数据是否定性的：BABA ev_after_fee_pct -3.0411%、MSFT -3.0389%、NVDA -3.1092%、AMZN -3.1872%、GOOGL -3.2689%、QCOM -3.9861%，均为负。即使按激进风格允许轮动，proxy_edge_pct 最高也只有 QCOM 1.66%、GOOGL 1.44%、BABA 1.30%，仍低于 fee_floor_pct 2.0017%，更明显低于 min_expected_edge_multiple_roundtrip_cost 所要求的有效安全垫。现有 BABA 持仓仅 0.938 股、现价 134.513，仓位极小；此时卖出只会把固定手续费进一步放大，难以改善净收益，继续持有观察优于止损或换仓。近期 recent_outcome_events 与 long_term_stats 也支持克制：US 样本 avg_decision_return_pct 为 -0.6259%，而近几次 HOLD 多数属于 hold_disciplined，说明当前环境下不交易比勉强交易更有纪律优势。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: downward momentum; Path: compare-stage hold review; Model: GPT-5.4; Purpose: hold discipline; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：下行动量；决策链路：候选比较后维持观望；模型：GPT-5.4；目的：观望纪律；置信度 0.00。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 5 active candidate(s). Top checks: BABA (China internet) | score -1.57 | post-fee EV -3.04% | win 39.7%; MSFT (cloud software) | score -2.37 | post-fee EV -3.04% | win 42.1%; NVDA (semiconductor) | score -2.41 | post-fee EV -3.11% | win 40.9%. / 共检查 5 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：BABA（中概互联网） | 评分 -1.57 | 扣费后 EV -3.04% | 胜率 39.7%；MSFT（云软件） | 评分 -2.37 | 扣费后 EV -3.04% | 胜率 42.1%；NVDA（半导体） | 评分 -2.41 | 扣费后 EV -3.11% | 胜率 40.9%。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

2026-03-13 00:04:49 CST (UTC+08:00) | [US] HOLD / [US] 观望

  • Rationale / 理由: No US candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, BABA, still showed score -1.60, post-fee EV -3.05%, and win probability 39.6%. / 维持 comparison_stage 的 HOLD 结论。当前可交易池 6 个标的全部为负的 fee-adjusted EV，没有任何一个达到“expected edge 必须显著高于往返手续费”的实盘门槛。在 maximize_net_profit_after_fees 的目标下，主动开新仓会把 15.6 HKD 固定单边费用放大成明显拖累。BABA 虽是相对最佳候选，但其费后期望仍明显为负，只适合继续观察而非加仓。现有 BABA 持仓仅 0.938 股，仓位极小，立即止损/轮动都难以在净额上优于继续持有。结合 recent_outcome_events 与 long_term_stats，最近 HOLD 多数优于勉强交易，尤其在 mixed 环境下错过收益虽存在，但通常不足以稳定覆盖双边成本。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: downward momentum; Path: compare-stage hold review; Model: GPT-5.4; Purpose: hold discipline; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：下行动量；决策链路：候选比较后维持观望；模型：GPT-5.4；目的：观望纪律；置信度 0.00。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 5 active candidate(s). Top checks: BABA (China internet) | score -1.60 | post-fee EV -3.05% | win 39.6%; NVDA (semiconductor) | score -2.48 | post-fee EV -3.13% | win 40.5%; MSFT (cloud software) | score -2.48 | post-fee EV -3.12% | win 40.8%. / 共检查 5 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：BABA（中概互联网） | 评分 -1.60 | 扣费后 EV -3.05% | 胜率 39.6%；NVDA（半导体） | 评分 -2.48 | 扣费后 EV -3.13% | 胜率 40.5%；MSFT（云软件） | 评分 -2.48 | 扣费后 EV -3.12% | 胜率 40.8%。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

Recent Trade Episodes / 最近交易片段

  • SELL RIVN | plan_only | edge=+62.38% | conf=0.95 | q=+0.45 | one_hour sell_neutral +0.45%
  • SELL RIVN | filled | edge=+62.35% | conf=0.95 | q=+0.45 | one_hour sell_neutral +0.45%
  • SELL RIVN | filled | edge=+62.35% | conf=0.95 | q=+0.45 | one_hour sell_neutral +0.45%

Latest No-Trade Window / 最新观望时段

  • Time / 时间: 2026-03-13 21:37:36 CST (UTC+08:00)
  • Market / 市场: US
  • Reason / 理由: No US candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, BABA, still showed score -1.83, post-fee EV -2.36%, and win probability 50.7%. / 无强信号，维持空仓/原仓位。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: mixed tape; Path: compare-stage hold review; Model: GPT-5.4; Purpose: hold discipline; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：混合状态；决策链路：候选比较后维持观望；模型：GPT-5.4；目的：观望纪律；置信度 0.00。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 2 active candidate(s). Top checks: BABA (China internet) | score -1.83 | post-fee EV -2.36% | win 50.7%; AMD (semiconductor) | score -3.38 | post-fee EV -3.23% | win 47.5%. / 共检查 2 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：BABA（中概互联网） | 评分 -1.83 | 扣费后 EV -2.36% | 胜率 50.7%；AMD（半导体） | 评分 -3.38 | 扣费后 EV -3.23% | 胜率 47.5%。
  • Watch / 观察点: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

Review / 当日复盘

  • Plan / 计划: Continue deploying only when the monitored universe offers a valid setup. / 只有在监控范围出现明确可执行机会时才推进自动动作。
  • Execution / 执行: 0 filled trade(s) and 0 order submission(s) were recorded. / 当日记录到 0 笔成交、0 次订单提交。
  • Next watch / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。