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Day 16 / 30 - Waiting for the Tide

Daily Report / 每日交易报告 - 2026-03-25

Session Summary / 会话摘要

  • Challenge progress / 挑战进度: Day 16 / 30 (53.3%)
  • Current equity / 当前权益: HKD 4,573.02
  • Net PnL / 累计盈亏: -HKD 426.98
  • Last snapshot / 最新快照: 2026-03-25 23:38:13 CST (UTC+08:00)
  • Research cycles / 研究轮次: 0
  • Order submissions / 提交订单: 0
  • Filled trades / 成交笔数: 0
  • FX events / 换汇记录: 0
  • Total tokens / 当日总 Token: 0
  • Decision-model tokens / 决策模型 Token: primary-reasoning 0 (0.0%)
  • Latest decision / 最新决策: [US] HOLD / [US] 观望

Holdings Detail / 持仓明细

Symbol Qty Value Floating PnL Status Note
None - - - - -

Trade Activity / 交易情况

Time Action Symbol Qty Avg Fill Timing Rationale / 时机理由
- - - - - No public fill / 暂无公开成交

Trade Rationale / 交易理由

  • Active trade note / 已执行交易说明: No public trade rationale / 暂无公开交易理由
  • Active trade risk / 已执行交易风险: No public trade risk / 暂无公开交易风险

Decision Timeline / 当日全部决策

2026-03-25 23:25:20 CST (UTC+08:00) | [US] HOLD / [US] 观望

  • Rationale / 理由: No US candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, TSLA, still showed score -0.36, post-fee EV +0.13%, and win probability 67.7%. / 比较阶段已偏向HOLD；TSLA虽排名第一，但费后EV仅0.13%，local_score为负，且盈亏比仅约0.63，未过fresh live门槛，也未满足learning probe所需的score与reward-risk条件。QCOM、RIVN费后EV为负，继续等待优于强行开仓。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: high volatility; Path: compare-stage hold review; Model: gpt-5.4; Purpose: hold discipline; confidence 0.78. / 市场状态：高波动；决策链路：候选比较后维持观望；模型：gpt-5.4；目的：观望纪律；置信度 0.78。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 5 active candidate(s). Top checks: TSLA (EV) | score -0.36 | post-fee EV +0.13% | win 67.7%; QCOM (semiconductor) | score -1.38 | post-fee EV -0.37% | win 64.0%; RIVN (EV) | score -1.81 | post-fee EV -0.92% | win 52.8%. / 共检查 5 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：TSLA（电动车） | 评分 -0.36 | 扣费后 EV +0.13% | 胜率 67.7%；QCOM（半导体） | 评分 -1.38 | 扣费后 EV -0.37% | 胜率 64.0%；RIVN（电动车） | 评分 -1.81 | 扣费后 EV -0.92% | 胜率 52.8%。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

2026-03-25 22:43:59 CST (UTC+08:00) | [US] HOLD / [US] 观望

  • Rationale / 理由: No US candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, QCOM, still showed score -1.11, post-fee EV -0.10%, and win probability 64.9%. / compare stage 已确认当前不值得开新风险，直接维持 HOLD。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: high volatility; Path: standard decision flow; Model: gpt-5.4; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.36. / 市场状态：高波动；决策链路：常规决策链路；模型：gpt-5.4；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.36。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 5 active candidate(s). Top checks: QCOM (semiconductor) | score -1.11 | post-fee EV -0.10% | win 64.9%; RIVN (EV) | score -1.69 | post-fee EV -0.80% | win 60.1%; TSM (semiconductor) | score -1.81 | post-fee EV -0.12% | win 62.0%. / 共检查 5 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：QCOM（半导体） | 评分 -1.11 | 扣费后 EV -0.10% | 胜率 64.9%；RIVN（电动车） | 评分 -1.69 | 扣费后 EV -0.80% | 胜率 60.1%；TSM（半导体） | 评分 -1.81 | 扣费后 EV -0.12% | 胜率 62.0%。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

2026-03-25 22:07:19 CST (UTC+08:00) | [US] HOLD / [US] 观望

  • Rationale / 理由: No US candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, TSLA, still showed score -1.03, post-fee EV -0.01%, and win probability 65.5%. / compare stage 已确认当前不值得开新风险，直接维持 HOLD。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: mixed tape; Path: standard decision flow; Model: gpt-5.4; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.36. / 市场状态：混合状态；决策链路：常规决策链路；模型：gpt-5.4；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.36。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 5 active candidate(s). Top checks: TSLA (EV) | score -1.03 | post-fee EV -0.01% | win 65.5%; QCOM (semiconductor) | score -2.11 | post-fee EV -0.56% | win 61.3%; TSM (semiconductor) | score -2.56 | post-fee EV -0.83% | win 57.8%. / 共检查 5 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：TSLA（电动车） | 评分 -1.03 | 扣费后 EV -0.01% | 胜率 65.5%；QCOM（半导体） | 评分 -2.11 | 扣费后 EV -0.56% | 胜率 61.3%；TSM（半导体） | 评分 -2.56 | 扣费后 EV -0.83% | 胜率 57.8%。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

2026-03-25 21:34:13 CST (UTC+08:00) | [US] HOLD / [US] 观望

  • Rationale / 理由: No US candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, TSLA, still showed score -0.97, post-fee EV +0.06%, and win probability 65.6%. / TSLA虽为比较阶段首选，但费后EV仅0.06%，低于fresh live 0.8%与learning probe 0.2%门槛；RIVN、QCOM费后EV为负，比较后没有一只值得新开仓。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: mixed tape; Path: compare-stage hold review; Model: gpt-5.4; Purpose: hold discipline; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：混合状态；决策链路：候选比较后维持观望；模型：gpt-5.4；目的：观望纪律；置信度 0.00。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 5 active candidate(s). Top checks: TSLA (EV) | score -0.97 | post-fee EV +0.06% | win 65.6%; RIVN (EV) | score -1.89 | post-fee EV -0.47% | win 64.2%; QCOM (semiconductor) | score -2.34 | post-fee EV -0.79% | win 60.6%. / 共检查 5 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：TSLA（电动车） | 评分 -0.97 | 扣费后 EV +0.06% | 胜率 65.6%；RIVN（电动车） | 评分 -1.89 | 扣费后 EV -0.47% | 胜率 64.2%；QCOM（半导体） | 评分 -2.34 | 扣费后 EV -0.79% | 胜率 60.6%。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

2026-03-25 15:25:49 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (no qualified setup) / [HK] 观望（无达标机会）

  • Rationale / 理由: 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。 / 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: unavailable; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：暂无；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。 / 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。

2026-03-25 15:09:23 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (no qualified setup) / [HK] 观望（无达标机会）

  • Rationale / 理由: 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。 / 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: unavailable; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：暂无；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。 / 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。

2026-03-25 14:27:58 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (no qualified setup) / [HK] 观望（无达标机会）

  • Rationale / 理由: 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。 / 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: unavailable; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：暂无；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。 / 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。

2026-03-25 13:45:27 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (no qualified setup) / [HK] 观望（无达标机会）

  • Rationale / 理由: 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。 / 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: unavailable; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：暂无；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。 / 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。

2026-03-25 13:03:41 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (no qualified setup) / [HK] 观望（无达标机会）

  • Rationale / 理由: 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。 / 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: unavailable; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：暂无；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。 / 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。

2026-03-25 11:59:02 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (no qualified setup) / [HK] 观望（无达标机会）

  • Rationale / 理由: 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。 / 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: unavailable; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：暂无；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。 / 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。

2026-03-25 11:18:27 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (no qualified setup) / [HK] 观望（无达标机会）

  • Rationale / 理由: 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。 / 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: unavailable; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：暂无；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。 / 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。

2026-03-25 10:37:05 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (no qualified setup) / [HK] 观望（无达标机会）

  • Rationale / 理由: 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。 / 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: unavailable; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：暂无；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。 / 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。

2026-03-25 09:56:27 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (no qualified setup) / [HK] 观望（无达标机会）

  • Rationale / 理由: 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。 / 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: unavailable; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：暂无；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。 / 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。

2026-03-25 09:39:57 CST (UTC+08:00) | [HK] HOLD (no qualified setup) / [HK] 观望（无达标机会）

  • Rationale / 理由: 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。 / 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: unavailable; Path: pre-check guard only; Model: no research model invoked; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.00. / 市场状态：暂无；决策链路：仅前置守门；模型：未调用研究模型；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.00。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。 / 当前港股动态活跃池为空，已跳过本轮决策。

2026-03-25 03:31:14 CST (UTC+08:00) | [US] HOLD / [US] 观望

  • Rationale / 理由: No US candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, TSLA, still showed score -2.29, post-fee EV -1.22%, and win probability 62.0%. / compare stage 已确认当前不值得开新风险，直接维持 HOLD。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: mixed tape; Path: standard decision flow; Model: gpt-5.4; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.36. / 市场状态：混合状态；决策链路：常规决策链路；模型：gpt-5.4；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.36。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 5 active candidate(s). Top checks: TSLA (EV) | score -2.29 | post-fee EV -1.22% | win 62.0%; ASML (semiconductor) | score -2.38 | post-fee EV -0.66% | win 60.2%; TSM (semiconductor) | score -2.47 | post-fee EV -0.74% | win 59.0%. / 共检查 5 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：TSLA（电动车） | 评分 -2.29 | 扣费后 EV -1.22% | 胜率 62.0%；ASML（半导体） | 评分 -2.38 | 扣费后 EV -0.66% | 胜率 60.2%；TSM（半导体） | 评分 -2.47 | 扣费后 EV -0.74% | 胜率 59.0%。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

2026-03-25 03:14:37 CST (UTC+08:00) | [US] HOLD / [US] 观望

  • Rationale / 理由: No US candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, TSLA, still showed score -2.14, post-fee EV -1.07%, and win probability 62.6%. / compare stage 已确认当前不值得开新风险，直接维持 HOLD。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: mixed tape; Path: standard decision flow; Model: gpt-5.4; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.36. / 市场状态：混合状态；决策链路：常规决策链路；模型：gpt-5.4；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.36。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 5 active candidate(s). Top checks: TSLA (EV) | score -2.14 | post-fee EV -1.07% | win 62.6%; ASML (semiconductor) | score -2.33 | post-fee EV -0.60% | win 61.0%; TSM (semiconductor) | score -2.41 | post-fee EV -0.69% | win 59.7%. / 共检查 5 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：TSLA（电动车） | 评分 -2.14 | 扣费后 EV -1.07% | 胜率 62.6%；ASML（半导体） | 评分 -2.33 | 扣费后 EV -0.60% | 胜率 61.0%；TSM（半导体） | 评分 -2.41 | 扣费后 EV -0.69% | 胜率 59.7%。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

2026-03-25 02:33:29 CST (UTC+08:00) | [US] HOLD / [US] 观望

  • Rationale / 理由: No US candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, TSLA, still showed score -2.31, post-fee EV -1.21%, and win probability 62.0%. / compare stage 已确认当前不值得开新风险，直接维持 HOLD。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: mixed tape; Path: standard decision flow; Model: gpt-5.4; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.36. / 市场状态：混合状态；决策链路：常规决策链路；模型：gpt-5.4；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.36。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 5 active candidate(s). Top checks: TSLA (EV) | score -2.31 | post-fee EV -1.21% | win 62.0%; ASML (semiconductor) | score -2.40 | post-fee EV -0.67% | win 60.0%; TSM (semiconductor) | score -2.48 | post-fee EV -0.75% | win 58.8%. / 共检查 5 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：TSLA（电动车） | 评分 -2.31 | 扣费后 EV -1.21% | 胜率 62.0%；ASML（半导体） | 评分 -2.40 | 扣费后 EV -0.67% | 胜率 60.0%；TSM（半导体） | 评分 -2.48 | 扣费后 EV -0.75% | 胜率 58.8%。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

2026-03-25 02:13:46 CST (UTC+08:00) | [US] HOLD / [US] 观望

  • Rationale / 理由: No US candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, TSLA, still showed score -2.38, post-fee EV -1.28%, and win probability 60.8%. / compare stage 已确认当前不值得开新风险，直接维持 HOLD。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: mixed tape; Path: standard decision flow; Model: gpt-5.4; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.36. / 市场状态：混合状态；决策链路：常规决策链路；模型：gpt-5.4；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.36。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 5 active candidate(s). Top checks: TSLA (EV) | score -2.38 | post-fee EV -1.28% | win 60.8%; ASML (semiconductor) | score -2.42 | post-fee EV -0.70% | win 59.6%; TSM (semiconductor) | score -2.52 | post-fee EV -0.80% | win 58.2%. / 共检查 5 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：TSLA（电动车） | 评分 -2.38 | 扣费后 EV -1.28% | 胜率 60.8%；ASML（半导体） | 评分 -2.42 | 扣费后 EV -0.70% | 胜率 59.6%；TSM（半导体） | 评分 -2.52 | 扣费后 EV -0.80% | 胜率 58.2%。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

2026-03-25 01:32:48 CST (UTC+08:00) | [US] HOLD / [US] 观望

  • Rationale / 理由: No US candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, TSLA, still showed score -2.38, post-fee EV -1.29%, and win probability 60.7%. / compare stage 已确认当前不值得开新风险，直接维持 HOLD。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: mixed tape; Path: standard decision flow; Model: gpt-5.4; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.36. / 市场状态：混合状态；决策链路：常规决策链路；模型：gpt-5.4；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.36。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 5 active candidate(s). Top checks: TSLA (EV) | score -2.38 | post-fee EV -1.29% | win 60.7%; ASML (semiconductor) | score -2.46 | post-fee EV -0.73% | win 59.1%; RIVN (EV) | score -2.52 | post-fee EV -1.02% | win 56.8%. / 共检查 5 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：TSLA（电动车） | 评分 -2.38 | 扣费后 EV -1.29% | 胜率 60.7%；ASML（半导体） | 评分 -2.46 | 扣费后 EV -0.73% | 胜率 59.1%；RIVN（电动车） | 评分 -2.52 | 扣费后 EV -1.02% | 胜率 56.8%。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

2026-03-25 01:00:11 CST (UTC+08:00) | [US] HOLD / [US] 观望

  • Rationale / 理由: No US candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, TSLA, still showed score -2.36, post-fee EV -1.25%, and win probability 61.3%. / compare stage 已确认当前不值得开新风险，直接维持 HOLD。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: mixed tape; Path: standard decision flow; Model: gpt-5.4; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.36. / 市场状态：混合状态；决策链路：常规决策链路；模型：gpt-5.4；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.36。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 5 active candidate(s). Top checks: TSLA (EV) | score -2.36 | post-fee EV -1.25% | win 61.3%; ASML (semiconductor) | score -2.40 | post-fee EV -0.67% | win 59.9%; TSM (semiconductor) | score -2.51 | post-fee EV -0.79% | win 58.3%. / 共检查 5 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：TSLA（电动车） | 评分 -2.36 | 扣费后 EV -1.25% | 胜率 61.3%；ASML（半导体） | 评分 -2.40 | 扣费后 EV -0.67% | 胜率 59.9%；TSM（半导体） | 评分 -2.51 | 扣费后 EV -0.79% | 胜率 58.3%。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

2026-03-25 00:25:55 CST (UTC+08:00) | [US] HOLD / [US] 观望

  • Rationale / 理由: No US candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, XOM, still showed score -2.21, post-fee EV -0.19%, and win probability 62.8%. / compare stage 已确认当前不值得开新风险，直接维持 HOLD。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: mixed tape; Path: standard decision flow; Model: gpt-5.4; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.36. / 市场状态：混合状态；决策链路：常规决策链路；模型：gpt-5.4；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.36。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 5 active candidate(s). Top checks: XOM (energy) | score -2.21 | post-fee EV -0.19% | win 62.8%; TSLA (EV) | score -2.33 | post-fee EV -1.22% | win 61.7%; ASML (semiconductor) | score -2.38 | post-fee EV -0.65% | win 60.2%. / 共检查 5 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：XOM（energy） | 评分 -2.21 | 扣费后 EV -0.19% | 胜率 62.8%；TSLA（电动车） | 评分 -2.33 | 扣费后 EV -1.22% | 胜率 61.7%；ASML（半导体） | 评分 -2.38 | 扣费后 EV -0.65% | 胜率 60.2%。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

2026-03-25 00:04:15 CST (UTC+08:00) | [US] HOLD / [US] 观望

  • Rationale / 理由: No US candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, XOM, still showed score -1.78, post-fee EV +0.24%, and win probability 63.9%. / 沿用 comparison_stage 的首阶段结论：XOM虽排第一，但费后EV仅0.2366%，低于 fresh live 0.8%门槛；ASML、RIVN费后EV均为负，当前没有一笔新交易能在费用后显著提升 pocket 增长。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: mixed tape; Path: compare-stage hold review; Model: gpt-5.4; Purpose: hold discipline; confidence 0.62. / 市场状态：混合状态；决策链路：候选比较后维持观望；模型：gpt-5.4；目的：观望纪律；置信度 0.62。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 5 active candidate(s). Top checks: XOM (energy) | score -1.78 | post-fee EV +0.24% | win 63.9%; ASML (semiconductor) | score -2.33 | post-fee EV -0.61% | win 60.9%; RIVN (EV) | score -2.36 | post-fee EV -0.85% | win 55.6%. / 共检查 5 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：XOM（energy） | 评分 -1.78 | 扣费后 EV +0.24% | 胜率 63.9%；ASML（半导体） | 评分 -2.33 | 扣费后 EV -0.61% | 胜率 60.9%；RIVN（电动车） | 评分 -2.36 | 扣费后 EV -0.85% | 胜率 55.6%。
  • Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

Recent Trade Episodes / 最近交易片段

  • SELL BABA | filled | edge=+2.62% | conf=0.99 | q=-3.11 | one_hour sell_exit_too_early -3.11%
  • SELL MU | plan_only | edge=+46.04% | conf=0.95 | q=-0.65 | close sell_neutral -0.65%
  • SELL MU | filled | edge=+46.04% | conf=0.95 | q=-0.65 | close sell_neutral -0.65%

Latest No-Trade Window / 最新观望时段

  • Time / 时间: 2026-03-25 23:25:20 CST (UTC+08:00)
  • Market / 市场: US
  • Reason / 理由: No US candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name, TSLA, still showed score -0.36, post-fee EV +0.13%, and win probability 67.7%. / 比较阶段已偏向HOLD；TSLA虽排名第一，但费后EV仅0.13%，local_score为负，且盈亏比仅约0.63，未过fresh live门槛，也未满足learning probe所需的score与reward-risk条件。QCOM、RIVN费后EV为负，继续等待优于强行开仓。
  • Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: high volatility; Path: compare-stage hold review; Model: gpt-5.4; Purpose: hold discipline; confidence 0.78. / 市场状态：高波动；决策链路：候选比较后维持观望；模型：gpt-5.4；目的：观望纪律；置信度 0.78。
  • Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 5 active candidate(s). Top checks: TSLA (EV) | score -0.36 | post-fee EV +0.13% | win 67.7%; QCOM (semiconductor) | score -1.38 | post-fee EV -0.37% | win 64.0%; RIVN (EV) | score -1.81 | post-fee EV -0.92% | win 52.8%. / 共检查 5 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：TSLA（电动车） | 评分 -0.36 | 扣费后 EV +0.13% | 胜率 67.7%；QCOM（半导体） | 评分 -1.38 | 扣费后 EV -0.37% | 胜率 64.0%；RIVN（电动车） | 评分 -1.81 | 扣费后 EV -0.92% | 胜率 52.8%。
  • Watch / 观察点: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。

Review / 当日复盘

  • Plan / 计划: Continue deploying only when the monitored universe offers a valid setup. / 只有在监控范围出现明确可执行机会时才推进自动动作。
  • Execution / 执行: 0 filled trade(s) and 0 order submission(s) were recorded. / 当日记录到 0 笔成交、0 次订单提交。
  • Next watch / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。