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## Overview
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This repository computes an updated estimate of the fitness effects of mutations of the SARS-CoV-2 genome,
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based on the work presented in this [paper](https://github.com/matsengrp/SARS2-synonymous-mut-rate-tex) by H.K. Haddox,
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G. Angehrn, L. Sesta, C. Jennings-Shaffer, S. Temple, J.G. Galloway, W.S. DeWitt, [F.A. Matsen IV](https://matsen.fhcrc.org/), and [R.A. Neher](https://neherlab.org/).
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based on the work presented in this [paper](https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.01.07.631013) by H.K. Haddox,
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G. Angehrn, L. Sesta, C. Jennings-Shaffer, S. Temple, J.G. Galloway, W.S. DeWitt, J.D. Bloom, [F.A. Matsen IV](https://matsen.fhcrc.org/), and [R.A. Neher](https://neherlab.org/).
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It builds upon and expand a previous approach to estimate viral fitness that can be found at [jbloomlab/SARS2-mut-fitness](https://github.com/jbloomlab/SARS2-mut-fitness/tree/main).
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The counts from the SARS-CoV-2 mutation-annotated tree provided by the [UShER developers](https://usher-wiki.readthedocs.io/)
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are used to accurately estimate the mutation rates according to:
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inferred rates, within a Bayesian probabilistic framework that also provides uncertainties.
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## References
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- Details about the computational framework can be found in the related [paper](https://github.com/matsengrp/SARS2-synonymous-mut-rate-tex).
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- Details about the computational framework can be found in the related [paper](https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.01.07.631013).
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- Data used as reference for RNA secondary structure are in [Lan et al](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-28603-2).
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- Evidence about influence of secondary structure on mutation rates were first presented in a paper by [Hensel](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.02.27.581995v1.abstract).
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- Evidences about influence of secondary structure on mutation rates were first presented in a paper by [Hensel](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.02.27.581995v1.abstract).
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- The original approach for estimating mutational fitness is presented in [Bloom & Neher](https://academic.oup.com/ve/article/9/2/vead055/7265011).
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## Interactive plots
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Interactive plots for visualizing the results of the analysis can be found at [https://neherlab.github.io/SARS2-mut-fitness-v2/](https://neherlab.github.io/SARS2-mut-fitness-v2/).
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Interactive plots for visualizing the results of the analysis can be found at [https://neherlab.github.io/SARS2-mut-fitness-v2/](https://neherlab.github.io/SARS2-mut-fitness-v2/). These are an updated version of some of the plots originally presented at [jbloomlab.github.io/SARS2-mut-fitness](https://jbloomlab.github.io/SARS2-mut-fitness/).
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## Computational pipeline
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It is possible to reproduce the fitness estimates by running the computational analysis defined in this GitHub repository.
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#### Nucleotide fitness
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The fitness effects of nucleotide mutations are reported in the `./results/_ntmut_fitness.csv` folder. In the dataframes therein, the output of the Bayesian probabilistic framework can be found, see section [Theoretical framework](#theoretical-framework) for additional details. Relevant entries are:
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* `f_mean`: the average with respect to the posterior of the fitness effect. It will provide the input for amino acid fitness effects.
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* `f_mean`: the average with respect to the posterior of the fitness effect. It provides the input for amino acid fitness effects.
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* `f_st_dev`: the posterior standard deviation, representing the uncertainty on the nucleotide fitness effect. It is also input for the amino acid estimates.
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#### Amino acid fitness
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For additional details, you can take a look to the [Theoretical framework](#theoretical-framework) section.
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## Theoretical framework
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A detailed description of the theoretical framework for the GLM and the Bayesian setting can be found in this [paper](https://github.com/matsengrp/SARS2-synonymous-mut-rate-tex). Here we outline some fundamental elements.
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A detailed description of the theoretical framework for the GLM and the Bayesian setting can be found in this [paper](https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.01.07.631013). Here we outline some fundamental elements.
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### GLM for predicted counts
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GLM's are inferred on two curated datasets containing counts for synonymous mutations. Genome sites are retained if:

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